PRESENT DEVELOPING SITUATION AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OF BASIN SIMULATION TECHNOLOGY

In this paper,the brief development history of basin simulation systems at home and abroad is introduced systematically.On this basis,the present developing situation of both geological and mathematical models for basin simulation is analyzed,especially that of geohistory,thermal history,hydrocarbon generation history,hydrocarbon expulsion history and hydrocarbon mingration and accumulation history "five histories" models for hydrocarbon accumulation dynamics.It is suggested that five difficult problems remain to be solved about basin simulation technology,that is,the organic unity of basin dynamic models and hydrocarbon accumulation dynamic models,the setablishment of dynamic balance models and corresponding mathematical models for 3-D geologic bodies,the correct modeling of the paleohydrodynamic process of basins,the full three dimensionation of each models for hydrocarbon accumulation dynamics and the solution of partial differential equations for variable meshes.It is considered that the developing trends of basin simulation technology in the next decade are as follows: 1) the full 3-D hydrocarbon basin dynamic simulation system based on basin dynamic evolution will be ste up and perfected gradually; 2) the basin dynamic simulation system supported by large scale exploration data bases will become powerful tols for hydrocarbon exploration and resource prediction; 3) the hydrocarbon generation system simulation will be the important content and developing style of basin simulation; and 4) "interactive simulation","artificial interfering interface" and "synthetic evaluation" technologies will make rapid progress.