保有石油预测储量升级潜力评价方法及升级策略

Evaluation of upgrading potential and strategy for inferred initially in-place petroleum

  • 摘要: 在低油价形势下,保有预测储量的有效升级动用是大家关注的焦点问题。目前保有石油预测储量基数大,缺乏针对预测储量升级潜力评价的系统性研究。采用漏斗筛选模型分层次建立清晰有效的预测储量升级潜力评价方法流程体系,强调升级过程中各阶段风险的评价和控制。为了最大程度降低地质风险评价中的人为因素影响,首次采用距离综合评价方法(TOPSIS法)对影响储量升级的地质因素进行评价,此方法应用于渤海湾盆地碎屑岩油藏,优选出升级潜力区块11个,取得良好的应用效果。研究结果表明,预测储量不确定性较大,在升级过程中,及时识别风险,找出难点,制定行之有效的升级策略,采用与之相适应的技术手段,寻求突破,才能进一步推动储量的高效升级动用。

     

    Abstract: Under the background of low oil price, the effective upgrading and utilization of the inferred initially in-place petroleum reserves are essential. At present, there is a large quantity of existing inferred initially in-place petroleum, but there is no systematic study on the evaluation of the upgrading potential. In this paper, a funnel screening method is used to establish a clear and effective evaluation procedure and to focus on the evaluation and control of risks in each stage of the process. In order to minimize the influence of human factors in geological risk assessment, the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) is used to evaluate the geological factors that affect the reserves upgrading for the first time. Eleven potential upgrading blocks have been selected and achieved good results in clastic rock reservoirs in the Bohai Bay Basin. The research results show that the uncertainty of the predicted reserves is large. In the upgrading process, the risks and difficulties should be identified in time. The corresponding technical measures are taken and the strategy are proposed, which provides guarantee for the further efficient and economic upgrading of reserves.

     

/

返回文章
返回