Abstract:  Locating in the eastern Yakela fault of the Shaya uplift of the Tarim Basin, the Luntai gas pool is a condensate gas pool with bottom water. Water breaks through severely since production; hence the accurate prediction of water breakthrough time is critical for guiding development. Based on data from watered well, by means of Sobocinaki-Cornelius method, the relationship between dimensionless coning height and dimensionless coning time is corrected. The error between predicted and actual water breakthrough times in watered well L5 is 9.24%. The water breakthrough time in well L2 is predicted as 12 years, and the rationality of the result is analyzed.