石油资源量估算与蒙特卡洛分析方法的应用

PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATION AND THE APPLICATION OF THE MONTE CARLO METHOD

  • 摘要: 目前,国外在石油和天然气资源量的估算中,蒙特卡洛法得到了普遍的运用。加拿大已成功地应用这一方法对其本国的油气资源进行了估算,得出了全国各大油气区的资源量概率分布曲线。美国还建立了专门估算油气的数据系统。本文以一些实例,简要地论述这个方法的某些概念及其实现方法;同时对资源量估算中的参数概型的选择作一些比较。

     

    Abstract: This article describes in detail some fundamental concepts of the Monte Carlo Method in estimating petroleum resource with the formula of the volumetric method. The computer program is also presented. The author made an estimate for petroleum resource of two oilfields with the Monte Carlo Method. Different models of probability of the main parameters, such as oil saturation, porosity and volume of oilbearing rocks, which would affect the estimate of petroleum resource were simulated. The results of petroleum resource estimation obtained in the simulations suggest that the estimate using statistical models of probability of a parameter is close to that obtained from the normal distribution model of probability derived from simulation, when sufficient original data of the parameter are available. Therefore, a parameter can be simulated with normal distribution model of probability when original data of the parameter are insufficient. In estimating petroleum resource, the Monte Carlo Method can be applied in combination with both the experiences of geologists and the actual geological data, no matter the geological data much or few. It can be considered as a practical method and widely applied in estimating oil and gas resources of various areas at different exploration stages.

     

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